September 2024 — Vice President Kamala Harris is heading into the final stretch of the 2024 presidential campaign with a notable surge in voter enthusiasm, significantly outpacing former President Donald Trump, according to recent polling data. This dramatic shift could sway undecided voters and those who might have otherwise supported Trump.
Key polling data from an August 25-28 USA Today/Suffolk University survey reveals a notable increase in excitement among Harris supporters, with 68% reporting they are “very excited” to vote for her. This contrasts with 60% of Trump voters who share the same level of enthusiasm. This is a significant turnaround from earlier in the year when enthusiasm was skewed towards Trump.
In June, before Harris officially launched her campaign, just 30% of President Joe Biden’s supporters expressed high excitement for voting, compared to 59% for Trump. However, recent data indicates a dramatic shift. An August 1-20 Gallup survey found 78% of Democratic voters and those leaning Democratic are “more enthusiastic than usual” about the election, compared to 64% of Republicans and Republican-leaning voters. This marks a sharp contrast to March, when enthusiasm among Democrats lagged behind Republicans.
This surge in Harris’ support has led to an all-time high in overall voter enthusiasm (69%) since Gallup began tracking this metric in 2000. While Democratic enthusiasm is just shy of the record set during the 2008 primary between Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton, Republican enthusiasm is approaching its peak from August 2020, during Trump’s re-election campaign.
Gallup notes, “The party with the higher net-enthusiasm score at the end of a presidential campaign usually sees their candidate win,” linking voter enthusiasm closely with a candidate’s position in pre-election polls.
Despite Harris’ rising popularity, Trump maintains a narrow edge in some swing state polls. According to FiveThirtyEight’s polling average, Harris is currently leading Trump by 3.2 points, while RealClearPolitics shows a 1.8-point advantage for Harris. Harris has gained significant traction among young voters and minority groups compared to Biden’s 2020 performance.
On specific issues, Trump retains an edge over Harris in areas such as the economy, immigration, and national security, though Harris has narrowed Trump’s lead in these areas compared to June. The shifting dynamics suggest a competitive race with evolving voter sentiments as the election approaches.
As the campaign intensifies, Harris’ growing enthusiasm among voters could prove crucial in the coming weeks, potentially altering the trajectory of the 2024 presidential race.
