Vice President Kamala Harris vaulted past former President Donald Trump in election betting markets on Tuesday night, following a standout performance in the first presidential debate. According to the Election Betting Odds tracker, which consolidates data from four major betting platforms, Harris now holds a 51.8% chance of winning the 2024 election, compared to Trump’s 46.9%.
The shift is significant, as Harris’ odds surged by more than four points in the last 24 hours, while Trump’s dropped by four points. The crypto-based betting platform Polymarket, which had heavily favored Trump in recent weeks, now shows Harris and Trump tied at 49% odds each.
On the UK-based betting site Smarkets, Harris is now predicted to have a 51.55% chance of victory, up from 47.5% last week, while Trump’s odds fell to 46.3%. On PredictIt, the U.S.-exclusive betting platform where Harris was already leading pre-debate, the vice president widened her lead further, with 56 cents per share, equating to a 56% chance of winning, compared to Trump’s 47 cents per share.
Big Shift in the Polls
The betting odds reflect a broader trend seen in national polls, where Harris has edged ahead of Trump. FiveThirtyEight’s weighted poll average shows Harris holding a 2.7% lead over the former president.
Betting Dynamics Shift
The sudden swing in odds is a marked departure from the previous weeks when Trump enjoyed a more favorable outlook among bettors. Platforms like Polymarket had shown consistent confidence in Trump’s chances, but the first presidential debate appears to have tilted momentum in Harris’ favor.
Tangent
While most betting markets are open to international participants, PredictIt is limited to U.S. residents aged 18 and older. This platform has seen consistent support for Harris, particularly after a series of legal battles. Earlier this year, the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) proposed a ban on election betting in U.S. derivatives markets, following its attempt to shut down PredictIt’s presidential race betting. The legal challenge remains unresolved.
Big Number
2.7% – that’s the size of Harris’ lead over Trump in national polls, according to FiveThirtyEight’s weighted average.
As the race continues, the odds are sure to shift again, but for now, Kamala Harris has taken the lead, emerging as the bookmakers’ favorite to win the 2024 election. The impact of the debate and the rapidly changing dynamics of the race underscore the unpredictability of this high-stakes contest.
